A lot of people were shocked at the Capitol protest recently. A lot of people were shocked at the riots in the summer. I was, of course, surprised, but not really shocked. In my life I have experienced multiple state upheavals. I was born in the USSR in 1986, USSR collapsed in 1991. In 1993, the Russian parliament tried to impeach Yeltsin, the president at the time. He brought tanks into Moscow and shot at the parliament until they stopped. In 1998 Russia, the rest of USSR including Kyrgyzstan experienced a currency crisis. In the worst single day of it the currency of Kyrgyzstan dropped by a factor of 2 against the dollar. In 2005, I was in America, while Kyrgyzstan had it's first revolution. As far as revolutions go, it was not bloody. In 2010, it has another revolution with a far more violent aftermath and thousands dead in fairly horrifying ways. Obviously, as with Hong Kong protesters, the American media cheered on both revolutions as a triumph of "democracy," without any sort of understanding of either side. After seeing the cruelty of the post-revolution violence, the idea of “a constant veil of civilization” got completely shattered.
So, in a sense I was already desensitized to the idea that sometimes this thing we call "civilization" simply collapses and gives way to violence of far greater magnitude than either the Seattle Capitol Hill Autonomous zone or the recent Capitol Hill shenanigans in DC. Now this isn't to downplay either. If CHAZ was it's own country it would have had the highest murder rate in the world.
So on one hand, the "shock" of either event is somewhat muted by the the realization that yes, in America, just like in other nations, "unprecedented" events do happen.
Now, knowing Kyrgyzstan's history after two revolutions and other smaller levels of unrest, there can be a certain calmness about the event. Its clear that for most people outside of the formal power structure live goes on. Yes many shopkeepers lose livelihoods, yes it can take years to rebuild, but there can be a certain sense of normality restored after the event.
So on one hand, I get a certain sense that people are a little over-reacting to the particular events, despite their grand symbolic significance. On the other hand, individual and isolated events of a large riot can only be dismissed if they are in fact isolated and individual. In the case of America and "2020", there is a sense that problems are systemic and widespread. How widespread? I think it's widespread enough to basically declare that in a large sense the idea of "America" is ending.
Now, formally America is still technically a country with most pieces of it still functioning on paper. As of this writing (Jan 10th, 2021) the wereabouts of the President are unknown and it's not clear who is in charge of the US nuclear arsenal and whether it even works. However, those question aside, the "formal" power structure still exists and formally the American state will keep existing for some time. Now, depending on how long it keep existing for, people's takes of "Coronavirus is America's Chernobyl" might end up being proven right.
However, in a symbolic sense, "America" is certainly over. Now for many people there is certainly a different experience of America from 2000 to 2020, as it used to be "normal", but is now "not normal" and they are hoping to return to "normal." It won't. However, for me, the experience has been shifted far more drastically. In 2000, America used to be the "promised land," a shining city upon a hill, "a land of opportunity," a grand aspiration of nations and individuals alike. At this point it feels like yet another 3rd world country which abuses immigrants and places bureaucracy and abstract rule following legalism way above the practical matters. The idea of America prepared for a pandemic is gone. The idea of American goods as "high quality" is gone. What does America make at this point that the world needs? Planes? 737-Max made people mighty suspicious of this. Software? After the recent ban wave Mexico want to create all of it's own software infrastructure. Why shouldn't they? It's too unreliable to have un-accountable Twitter be ready to cut off communication to any head of state regardless of circumstances.
So, one by one, the sets of norms that used to define America as distinguished from other countries (property rights, free speech, general competence) have slowly eroded into nothingness. The idea of "America" is gone. I probably would not advise immigrants from many countries to come here anymore even if it was easy. Either you can't make it financially or you can and then become the subject of abject hate.
Large number of intellectuals and movers are not banking of the continued stability of the US. People are pushing each other to bitcoin, signal, urbit or other techno-space solutions. Elon, the richest man in the world wants to leave the planet entirely. Now in general having alternatives is good, it's simply not a good sign if "alternatives" are all we have.
Where to now? Where does the nation go? It's a complex question, but the simplest prediction is that things will get more strange and weird before they get better. Many people will leave, many systems that we used to rely on will no longer be reliable. The nation will emerge out of it in some form, but there will need to be a long time before it can properly recover.